The Setup

Let’s break down the chart:

• Channel support gave way last week after price printed a series of lower highs.

• This breakdown has now pushed price into a key demand zone between 113’06 and 112’30 marked as support (S).

• Above us, multiple zones of supply are stacked:

  • Mid-zone at ~113’26–113’32

  • Major resistance between 114’16–114’28, which aligns with the underside of the broken channel

Add to that a macro backdrop filled with uncertainty, bond market repricing, and rate cut speculation and you’ve got all the ingredients for a high-probability trade setup.

Bearish Trade Plan

This is a classic break-and-retest setup:

"When structure breaks, expect a retest and if it holds, stack your bias."

Here’s how we’re attacking it:

• Entry Zone: 113’24–113’30
  → Retesting broken channel and supply

• Stop Loss: Above 114’00 (or 114’16 for wider risk tolerance)

• Take Profits:

  • TP1 → 113’00

  • TP2 → 112’10

  • TP3 → 110’00 (swing target)

We’re watching for a clean rejection at the mid supply zone. If price pushes into resistance and fails to reclaim the channel, it confirms bearish intent and we’re loading short.

Bullish Counter-Scenario

There’s one scenario where bulls could flip the narrative:

• If price defends the support zone (S) around 113’00–112’30

• And aggressively reclaims 113’32–113’40 with volume and momentum

• That would open the door for a retracement rally back to 114’16–114’28

But until that happens, this market looks heavy.

Conclusion

This is what high-probability structure shifts look like. Clean channel breakdown, retest in play, and high confluence zones marked out.

Stay patient. Don’t front-run the move let price tell the story. If 113’30 gets rejected, we’re short. If bulls reclaim it, we’ll reassess.

Bias: Bearish
Focus: Reaction to 113’30 zone
Timeframe: Intraday to multi-day swing

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