Breakdown for Monday

Technical Picture

We’ve been in a strong bearish trend, rejecting all attempts to climb back into any premium value area. On my chart, I’ve marked out the major supply zones (labeled 'R' for Resistance and 'S' for Supply), and as expected, price has failed to reclaim any of them. Each one has acted as a ceiling, triggering another leg lower.

What’s more, VWAP is trailing just above current price, which keeps the short bias intact. Unless we reclaim that VWAP, we remain sellers.

Key Supply and Demand Zones

📍Premium Supply Zone (Upper Resistance): 3,366.8
This is the ceiling. If price ever makes it back here, I’d be looking to short it hard but for now, it's just a long-term magnet. A mean reversion here is unlikely unless something major shifts.

📍Mid-Level Supply (Low Zone): 3,318.2 – 3,328.1
This zone acted as support previously now it’s flipped. If we get a retracement up here, I’ll be looking for a clean rejection wick or engulfing pattern for short entry.

📍Immediate Resistance: 3,278.5 (Premium Zone)
This is the nearest key area just above price. If we open on Monday and test this level, I’ll look for bearish setups (like a lower time frame M15 rejection wick) for a continuation short.

Trade Scenarios

Scenario A: Rejection from 3,278.5 → Short Setup

If price makes a move up into 3,278.5 during the London or early NY session, I’ll look to short it at rejection.

Entry: 3,278 – 3,280 (look for a bearish M15 candle)
Stop Loss: Above 3,288 (structure break invalidation)
Take Profit 1: 3,245
Take Profit 2: 3,210
Take Profit 3 (final swing target): 3,180

This is the cleanest play — shorting the pullback into prior value, using the dominant trend for confluence.

Scenario B: Deeper Pullback to 3,318 – 3,328 → Short Again

If price breaks above 3,280 and pushes higher, I’m not chasing. I’ll wait patiently for it to tag the Low Zone at 3,318 – 3,328.

Entry: 3,320 – 3,325
Stop Loss: 3,335+ (above structure high)
Take Profit 1: 3,278
Take Profit 2: 3,245
Take Profit 3: 3,200

This area should see aggressive selling if the macro trend remains intact. It’s a perfect “fade the retracement” level.

Scenario C: Bullish Reversal Setup (Low Probability)

If price starts building structure above 3,328 and closes two 1H candles above VWAP I’ll consider a shift in structure.

Entry: Break and retest above 3,330
Target 1: 3,366.8
Target 2: 3,400 (if momentum carries)
Stop Loss: Below reclaimed VWAP (tight)

But again, that’s only if we see sustained strength. Until then, it’s all sell-the-rip.

Confluence Factors

• VWAP bias is bearish

• Supply zones respected repeatedly

• No bullish market structure shift

• Momentum still to the downside

Monday Game Plan Summary

SetupEntry ZoneStop LossTP1TP2TP3Short from 3,278.53,278 – 3,2803,2883,2453,2103,180Short from 3,3183,320 – 3,3253,3353,2783,2453,200Long reversal (low probability)3,330+Below VWAP3,3663,400—

Final Thoughts

This is a textbook breakdown-and-retest scenario. The key is discipline, no chasing, no second-guessing. Let price come to your levels and execute mechanically. Gold moves fast, but it rewards precision.

If we open weak and can’t reclaim 3,278, I’ll be short within the first hour. If it retraces higher, all the better, we get a deeper pullback and an even juicier entry.

Let’s trade clean.
Let’s trade confident.

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