Buy the Dip or Brace?

MES Price Action Recap

The MES ripped through resistance last week, with little hesitation forming a series of higher highs and higher lows. Price hit a clear resistance zone (R) above 6,270 and printed a sharp pullback candle to end the week.

Unlike an aggressive reversal, this appears to be a measured pullback, which opens the door for a continuation but it hinges on the next reaction from support.

Key Technical Levels

TypeZone (approx.)CommentResistance (R)6,270 – 6,300Freshly formed supply zone; Friday's rejection candle anchored hereSupport (S)6,210 – 6,240Prior breakout level, potential demand zoneSecondary Support6,130 – 6,150Deeper support below if the first fails

Trade Scenarios

Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation (Trend Follows Through)

The trend is your friend until it clearly breaks — and that hasn’t happened yet.

• Entry: Long around 6,220–6,240 on bullish confirmation

• TP1: 6,270

• TP2: 6,300

• TP3: 6,340 (potential breakout extension)

• SL: 6,190 (below support zone)

📌 Bonus Tip: Look for a wick rejection or bullish engulfing candle on 15m/1H chart for extra conviction.

Scenario 2: Bearish Breakdown

If MES loses 6,210 support with momentum, expect a short-term trend shift.

• Entry: Short below 6,190 after breakdown confirmation

• TP1: 6,150

• TP2: 6,130

• SL: 6,240

This trade favours scalpers and short-term traders capitalising on panic volume after support breaks.

Scenario 3: Range Reversion (Scalper’s Paradise)

If MES stays pinned between the S and R zones, play the edges.

• Buy near 6,220, target 6,270+, SL below 6,190

• Sell near 6,290, target 6,240, SL above 6,310

Range trading works well during NY lunch hours or early Asia sessions.

Weekly Bias: Bullish (Moderate-to-Strong)

✔️ Reasons:

• Structure = higher highs, higher lows

• Friday’s pullback respected support

• No major shift in volume or trend

⚠Watch Out If:

• We break below 6,190 with a retest failure

• Broader indices (especially NQ) show reversal signals

• Economic data this week sparks risk-off sentiment

Strategy Summary

BiasConfidenceTrigger

✅ BullishHighSupport at 6,210 holds; continuation setup

⚠️ BearishMediumBreakdown + retest below 6,190

❎ NeutralLowOnly valid if trapped in tight 6,240–6,270 chop

What to Watch Monday

• Opening Drive: Does MES open above 6,240 and push into 6,270 fast? That confirms buyer strength.

• VIX Action: Any pop in volatility could pressure price back down.

• Macro Data: Watch for PMI or Fed commentary that could shake sentiment.

Final Thoughts

The MES is in a textbook continuation pattern. As long as bulls hold the line at 6,210, this looks like a solid dip-buy opportunity not a reversal. Be patient, let the levels guide you, and don’t force trades into chop zones.

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