Bounce or Bull Trap?

Price Structure Breakdown

• After bottoming near 0.6370, price surged in an impulsive bullish leg.

• The rally ran into resistance near 0.6570–0.6580, where multiple rejections occurred.

• Current price is retesting the support zone at 0.6510–0.6525, which is a former breakout area.

So far, this is a textbook bullish pullback but confirmation is still needed.

Key Zones

TypePrice AreaNotesResistance (R1)0.6570 – 0.6580Recent high; rejection zone. Must break for trend continuation.Support (S1)0.6510 – 0.6525Current bounce zone. Prior consolidation and breakout area.Support (S2)0.6450 – 0.6470Deeper level. If S1 breaks, this zone likely tagged next.Macro Support0.6370 – 0.6380Major low. Structure invalidation point.

Bias for the Week Ahead

Bias: Bullish (Conditional on Holding 0.6510)

• Momentum favours bulls, especially after the impulsive rally from 0.6370.

• However, the rejection from 0.6570 shows that sellers are active at highs, so we need a higher low confirmation near 0.6510 to re-engage long bias confidently.

Trade Scenarios

Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation

• Entry: Long from 0.6520–0.6535, ideally on bullish engulfing or higher low confirmation.

• TP1: 0.6560

• TP2: 0.6580

• TP3: 0.6610+

• SL: 0.6490

This trade bets on the bull trend holding structure. High RR if it runs clean.

Scenario 2: Bearish Breakdown

• Entry: Short below 0.6500 with strong bearish candle or retest rejection

• TP1: 0.6470

• TP2: 0.6450

• SL: 0.6530

Best if DXY strengthens or commodity sentiment shifts risk-off. Watch AUD correlations with metals.

Scenario 3: Range Play

If price remains between 0.6520–0.6570:

• Buy lower end (0.6510–0.6525), sell upper (0.6565–0.6575)

• Tight stops, scalp-style management

Only valid if Monday opens sideways with low volume.

Summary Table

Direction Bias Trigger

✅ BullishStrong (if 0.6510 holds)Higher low + bullish confirmation

⚠️ BearishMediumBreakdown + close below 0.6500

❎ RangeLowIf no directional momentum early week

Weekly Watchlist

• Monday NY session: Key to see if support holds or breaks

• China data / commodities: Major AUD drivers

• US Dollar (DXY): If DXY drops, AUD likely rallies

Final Take

AUD/USD looks like it’s trying to build a higher low. The next 24–48 hours are crucial if bulls can defend 0.6510, a retest of 0.6570+ is likely. But if that zone fails, we could revisit the 0.6450s quickly.

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