Rebound or Reversal?

Price Action Overview

• Price recently topped out near 148.50, then sold off sharply.

• Now sitting between 144.20–145.10 resistance and 143.00–143.50 support.

• Momentum appears neutral for now — sideways consolidation after a volatile leg.

Key Levels

TypePrice AreaNotesResistance (R)144.20 – 145.10Currently rejecting from this zone. Strong supply post-selloff.Support (S)143.00 – 143.50Recent low. Held twice last week. If lost, opens downside.Major High148.50Swing high and local top. Bulls need major strength to revisit.

Trade Scenarios

Scenario 1: Bearish Rejection at Resistance

• Entry: Short between 144.60–145.00 after rejection candle

• TP1: 143.60

• TP2: 143.00

• SL: 145.30

This setup favours the idea of a lower high forming beneath major resistance.

Scenario 2: Bullish Breakout Above 145.10

• Entry: Long on breakout close above 145.10 with volume

• TP1: 146.00

• TP2: 147.20

• SL: 144.30

This would suggest strength is returning to USD, especially if DXY rallies with it.

Scenario 3: Range Play

Until a breakout occurs, expect chop between 143.00–145.00:

• Buy near 143.20, SL below 142.80, TP near 144.80

• Sell near 145.00, SL above 145.30, TP near 143.50

Use smaller size and tighter stops in this range zone.

Weekly Bias: Neutral to Bearish

Reasons for Bearish Lean:

1. Failed breakout from 148.50 = exhaustion

2. Lower high structure potentially forming

3. Price rejecting at newly formed supply

If support at 143.00 breaks this week, downside could accelerate toward 141.80–142.00.

Bias Breakdown

🔻 Bearish LeanLower high formation developingWeekly

⚠️ NeutralNeeds clean breakout or breakdown for clarity

Watch This Week

• Yen strength or BOJ intervention threats could drive sudden downside.

• US data (PMI, labor) can push USD strength or weakness.

• 144.80–145.10 is the battle zone whoever wins controls the week.

Final Word

USD/JPY is walking a tightrope. Bears are defending resistance. If price can’t break 145.10 early in the week, odds favour a push back down to 143.00 or lower. Patience is key wait for clarity at the edges.

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