Bullish Cable or False Rally?

Market Structure

• Trend: Strong bullish impulse from June 21 to June 27.

• Current Price: 1.3730 area, bouncing from the 1.3700–1.3680 support zone.

• Structure: Price is testing a former resistance-turned-support, while 1.3780–1.3810 acts as the short-term ceiling.

This setup suggests we are either:

• Building for another leg higher (bullish continuation), or

• Stalling for a range or possible bearish correction.

Key Technical Zones

Zone TypePrice AreaNotesResistance1.3780 – 1.3810Rejection seen Friday. Clean supply zone.Immediate Support1.3680 – 1.3710Prior breakout zone. Bounce confirmed.Deeper Support1.3600 – 1.3630Fair value + demand. If broken, structure weakens.Fair Value Gap1.3540 – 1.3580Unfilled gap from breakout leg. Could magnet price lower if correction deepens.

Bias for the Week Ahead

Bias: Bullish (Conditional)

The recent bullish leg was impulsive and well-structured — and price is currently respecting support.

As long as GBP/USD holds above 1.3680, the bulls remain in control.

A break above 1.3810 could open up clean upside into the 1.3880–1.3920 range.

Trade Scenarios

Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation

• Entry: Long near 1.3710–1.3730 on bullish candle or reclaim of 1.3750

• TP1: 1.3780

• TP2: 1.3820

• TP3: 1.3880

• SL: 1.3670 (below support zone)

This setup rides the trend continuation and reclaims lost ground from Friday’s rejection.

Scenario 2: Bearish Breakdown

• Entry: Short on break + retest below 1.3680

• TP1: 1.3630

• TP2: 1.3580

• SL: 1.3725

This scenario plays a failed breakout and shift back into the fair value zone. Ideal if the dollar strengthens or GBP-specific data weakens.

Scenario 3: Range Play

If the pair remains inside the 1.3680–1.3780 range:

• Buy support near 1.3700

• Sell resistance near 1.3800

• Tight stops and small targets — expect choppy price action

Summary

Direction Bias Trigger

✅ BullishStrongBounce from 1.3700 + break above 1.3780

⚠️ BearishModerateBreakdown below 1.3680 and weak retest

❎ RangeShort-termIf 1.3680–1.3780 holds both sides

What to Watch

• UK Data: PMI, GDP, or BoE statements could move Cable aggressively.

• USD Influence: Dollar Index strength or weakness will play a key role in direction.

• 1.3700 Zone: This is the weekly battlefield — bulls need to hold this or momentum fades.

Final Take

GBP/USD is in a clear uptrend, but the latest pullback is the market's way of testing conviction. As long as 1.3680 holds, bulls are likely to reload but if it gives way, the fair value gap could drag us down into the mid-1.35s. Let me know if you'd like a blog title or image concept to go with this one.

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