Coiling or a Breakout?

Price Structure Summary

• After a breakout leg from 1.1550 → 1.1800, the pair has stalled beneath 1.1790–1.1820 resistance.

• Multiple wicks into resistance show hesitation but no breakdown either.

• Current price is holding the support zone at 1.1700–1.1725, which coincides with the base of the consolidation and a bullish FVG (fair value gap) zone.

This gives us a clean range structure with bullish bias.

Key Technical Zones

Zone TypePrice AreaNotesResistance (R)1.1790 – 1.1820Major rejection zone. Multiple failed breakouts.Support (S)1.1700 – 1.1725Current bounce area. Strong reaction Friday.FVG Zone1.1660 – 1.1685Fair value imbalance. Potential magnet if 1.1700 breaks.Structural Support1.1600 – 1.1620Trend-defining zone. If broken, invalidates bullish leg.

Trade Scenarios

Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout

• Entry: Long on breakout close above 1.1820

• TP1: 1.1870

• TP2: 1.1920

• SL: 1.1740

High momentum continuation trade if price clears resistance decisively.

Scenario 2: Bearish Rejection + Breakdown

• Entry: Short on clean break below 1.1700, or rejection at 1.1790

• TP1: 1.1680

• TP2: 1.1620

• SL: 1.1765 (if shorting the breakdown)

This plays either rejection from highs or a deeper unwind into the FVG zone.

Scenario 3: Range Continuation

If EUR/USD remains between 1.1700 and 1.1820:

• Buy near 1.1720, SL below 1.1680, TP at 1.1790

• Sell near 1.1800, SL above 1.1830, TP around 1.1725

Great for short-term scalpers while volatility remains muted.

Weekly Bias: Bullish (As Long as 1.1700 Holds)

🔑 Justification:

• Price is consolidating after an impulsive breakout

• No structure break below last higher low (1.1680)

• Buyers defended 1.1700 on the last test

• FVG acts as secondary support if 1.1700 breaks still bullish above 1.1600

Summary Table

Direction Bias Trigger

✅ BullishStrongBreak above 1.1820

⚠️ BearishConditionalBreak below 1.1700

❎ RangeValidWhile stuck in 1.1700–1.1820

Macro Watch

• USD news: NFP, ISM, and Fed comments this week will drive EUR/USD volatility.

• Eurozone data: Inflation and sentiment numbers early-week may spike price.

• DXY correlation: If Dollar Index breaks down, EUR/USD could punch through resistance fast.

Final Take

EUR/USD is coiling for a move and the longer it consolidates near the highs, the more likely it is to break upward. As long as 1.1700 support holds, the bulls are still in control.

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